Is the National Bank of Greece the Next Great Small Cap Trade? (ETAK, WYY, CYTR, NBG)

If you're reading this, then odds are you already know that small caps WidePoint Corporation (NYSEMKT:WYY), CytRx Corporation (NASDAQ:CYTR), and Elephant Talk Communications Corp. (NYSEMKT:ETAK) are among the recent big winners from the small cap stock realm. ETAK is up 100% since the end of October, largely spurred by encouraging numbers in its third-quarter results. CYTR shares have rallied more than 150% in just the past three days on the heels of an announcement that a cancer drug the biotech company is developing has shown wonderful Phase 2 results. And, WYY has advanced 93% over the past month or so, thanks to Q3's earnings announcement, though the trading public - and then the media - certainly took the ball and ran with it.

There's just one problem with the big runups from Elephant Talk Communications, WidePoint Corporation, and CytRx Corporation. That problem? Before the surges, it was very unlikely any of them were on very many traders' radars. In fact, it's very likely most traders had never even heard of at least one of them (if not two). The trick to creating success as a speculator of small cap stocks is spotting a big winner before the runup starts to materialize, since (to be blunt, but honest), most small cap stock picks aren't all that rewarding. Enter the National Bank of Greece (NYSE:NBG). The National Bank of Greece is also one of the small caps that has gone ballistic of late? No, it hasn't - that's just it. NBG hasn't gone anywhere of late. If the very subtle clues are on target though, then this stock has a good shot at becoming the next WYY, ETAK, or CYTR, and you know about it before it actually happens.

Those clues, as was noted, are subtle. Some would even say they're obscure. That doesn't mean they're invalid though. Indeed, WidePoint, CytRx, and Elephant Talk all dropped most of the same hints before and right at the onset of their big advances. In no particular order, the National Bank of Greece has:

NBG has started to draw a lot of new interest - and posts about it - on the stock-trading message boards. It's been a hot button off and on since Greece's sovereign debt crisis a few years back. But, there's a resurgence of interest brewing right now, implying traders are fishing for a good reason to buy NBG. Given enough time, they'll come up with one. NBG shares are attacking a key horizontal resistance line at $6.39, and being pushed upward by a rising support level. The 200-day moving average line (green) is also right around that mark, and with support and a bunch of resistance on the verge of, well, converging, National Bank of Greece shares are going to be forced into breaking one way or the other. Whichever direction that is, it should be explosive after two and a half months' worth of purely-sideways movement.

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The media rhetoric has suddenly turned very favorable on Greek stocks, and on National Bank of Greece. Headlines such as [these are real headlines since mid-November, by the way] "NBG Scores in Very Rare Greek Bank Credit Rating Upgrade", "NBG Must Like a Greek Budget Surplus", "Hedge Funds Grab Greek Assets", and "Run, Don't Walk to the Greece ETF" have all popped up. They say the media is only a reflection of the public's subconscious opinion. If that's the case, then the National Bank of Greece has created a positive one, and it may only be a matter of time before the stock follows suit.

There's still some work left to be done, such as clearing an entanglement of technical resistance around $6.40. But, everything else seems to be falling into place in support of a breakout move from NBG.

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